The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) has noted that there has been an increase in buyers and sellers in the market for houses. This number is independent of actual houses sold. Does this mean that more buyers are stepping in to buy a house and that the inventory of unsold homes is starting to fall?
We will examine further the statistics on properties sold. Out of all homes sold, 11.2% were first time home buyers. Furthermore, the average sales per real estate agent has upticked for the first time in several years. In some areas of the U.S., home prices have even gone up a little. People searching for a house rose from 177 per broker to 208. The amount of houses each agent was selling increased from 85 to 112. The average amount of sales per real estate broker rose from 4 to 7.
Everyone is now wondering if 2009 is the year to buy a house. In a recent survey of more than 55 real estate analysts, 60% believe that 2009 is the year to buy a house. Probably the single most important factor to look at when speaking about home sales is interest rates. The 60% of analysts who believe now is a good time to buy a house also believe that interest rates will not be raised until sometime in 2010. It is both low prices and low interest rates (borrowing rates) that will pull more buyers into the housing market.
40% of industry analysts surveyed feel that it is too early to buy a house. They believe that the price of houses will continue to drop. The reason they give is that unemployment will continue to remain high. Even more workers will worry about job security. The banks will continue to reduce credit lines and make fewer home loans. Capital Economics forecasts home prices to fall another 20% before a bottom is reached in late 2009 and early 2010. A small amount of extreme analysts expect home prices to fall all of 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and finally bottom in 2014.
It is my opinion that you should not feel rushed into buying a house right now. You still have plenty of time. Remember, the economy is still in a recession. Big ticket items like homes and cars are the first to drop in any recession. What makes this recession worse is that banks are not lending as much money as they typically do in a recession. People are continuing to be laid off as evidenced by the rising unemployment rate. Homes continue to go into default at an increasing rate. All of these negative factors will continue to make the demand for houses be very low which means a huge supply of unsold homes will remain on the market for many months to come.
Another negative factor on the price of homes is perceived risk by market participants. Buying a house has always been a good investment until 2006. Now everything has changed. Houses are seen as more of a risky investment now. Even banks view homes in this way which is why they are giving out fewer and fewer loans. With this negative perception in the housing market, I believe that home prices will continue their downward trend for the rest of this year and that 2010 will reveal even better bargains than in 2009.
May you find this information helpful in deciding if you should buy a house. If you own property in California’s Central Valley and are in need of a property manager to do all the work for you in managing your rental see Fresno property management. If you are a tenant looking for the lowest rent on apartments for rent in Fresno, see apartments for rent in Fresno CA
Posted under Personal Finance
This post was written by Mike Miller on September 8, 2009
